|
|
|
The midterm elections are just more than two weeks away, with Republicans poised to make gains in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. Statewide, Republicans, based on recent polling, are set to retake state offices.
In polling done for KWCH on Oct. 13, SurveyUSA has Republican Sam Brownback leading Democrat Tom Holland 60 percent to 32 percent in the race for governor. In the Secretary of State’s race Republican Kris Kobach leads Democratic incumbent Chris Biggs 53 percent to 35 percent. Republican Derek Schmidt leads Democratic incumbent Attorney General Steve Six 48 percent to 40 percent. For Kansas State Treasurer, Republican Rob Estes, who is treasurer for Sedgwick County, leads Democratic incumbent Dennis McKinney 55 percent to 39 percent.
For all of the above offices, the Libertarian and Reform Party candidates are polling between 2 and 6 percent. Undecided voters are also low, in the range of 2 to 5 percent for each office.
For Congressional and Senate races, Democrats aren’t faring much better. In the U.S. Senate race, Jerry Moran holds a commanding lead over Democrat Lisa Johnston, with 67 percent to 27 percent, with 2 percent of voters remaining undecided.
In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Tim Huelskamp is polling at 63 percent, while his Democratic rival Alan Jilka has 26 percent. Undecideds in the Big First are at 6 percent.
However, nationally, it remains to be seen just how big Republicans are expected to win. Republicans need to capture 40 seats in the house and 10 seats in the Senate to assume leadership of Congress. Politico, as of Oct. 15, believes Republicans will pick up 45 House seats, and eight seats in the Senate.
The Sentinel asked three of our Insight Kansas writers for their predictions on the upcoming congress, which are printed below.
Dr. Burdett Loomis - University of Kansas
I’m looking at 229 Republicans and 206 Democrats in the 112th House of Representatives and 51 Democrats and 49 Rs in the Senate (including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats and Murkowski as an R if she wins in AK). This is certainly a Republican year, but lots of Democratic incumbents have put together strong voting records and campaign organizations to withstand the trend. In the Senate, most everything has to go right for Republicans to take control, although it’s certainly possible. Two wild cards – the apparently immense outside spending in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and the outside-the-mainstream status of many GOP Tea Party-influenced nominees. We just don’t know how the electorate is going to respond to these forces, the former of which helps Republicans, the latter probably hurts some of them.
The midterm elections are just more than two weeks away, with Republicans poised to make gains in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. Statewide, Republicans, based on recent polling, are set to retake state offices.
In polling done for KWCH on Oct. 13, SurveyUSA has Republican Sam Brownback leading Democrat Tom Holland 60 percent to 32 percent in the race for governor. In the Secretary of State’s race Republican Kris Kobach leads Democratic incumbent Chris Biggs 53 percent to 35 percent. Republican Derek Schmidt leads Democratic incumbent Attorney General Steve Six 48 percent to 40 percent. For Kansas State Treasurer, Republican Rob Estes, who is treasurer for Sedgwick County, leads Democratic incumbent Dennis McKinney 55 percent to 39 percent.
For all of the above offices, the Libertarian and Reform Party candidates are polling between 2 and 6 percent. Undecided voters are also low, in the range of 2 to 5 percent for each office.
For Congressional and Senate races, Democrats aren’t faring much better. In the U.S. Senate race, Jerry Moran holds a commanding lead over Democrat Lisa Johnston, with 67 percent to 27 percent, with 2 percent of voters remaining undecided.
In the 1st Congressional District, Republican Tim Huelskamp is polling at 63 percent, while his Democratic rival Alan Jilka has 26 percent. Undecideds in the Big First are at 6 percent.
However, nationally, it remains to be seen just how big Republicans are expected to win. Republicans need to capture 40 seats in the house and 10 seats in the Senate to assume leadership of Congress. Politico, as of Oct. 15, believes Republicans will pick up 45 House seats, and eight seats in the Senate.
The Sentinel asked three of our Insight Kansas writers for their predictions on the upcoming congress, which are printed below.
Dr. Burdett Loomis - University of Kansas
I’m looking at 229 Republicans and 206 Democrats in the 112th House of Representatives and 51 Democrats and 49 Rs in the Senate (including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats and Murkowski as an R if she wins in AK). This is certainly a Republican year, but lots of Democratic incumbents have put together strong voting records and campaign organizations to withstand the trend. In the Senate, most everything has to go right for Republicans to take control, although it’s certainly possible. Two wild cards – the apparently immense outside spending in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and the outside-the-mainstream status of many GOP Tea Party-influenced nominees. We just don’t know how the electorate is going to respond to these forces, the former of which helps Republicans, the latter probably hurts some of them.
Dr. Bob Beatty - Washburn University
It seems as if we're looking at the Republicans taking back the majority in the House by 10 to 20 seats, while it's very possible that the Democrats might hold on to a slim majority in the Senate. An abnormally large GOP turnout on Election Night, in some key states, could even put the GOP over the top in the Senate as well. However, with Democrat Barack Obama sitting in the president's chair, with his veto pen handy, a Republican congressional majority will not be able to force anything through congress, at least into law, without Democratic approval. This will make for an interesting dynamic: Will a Republican majority in Congress look to work with President Obama on issues such as the deficit, illegal immigration, and Social Security reform, or, looking toward the 2012 presidential elections, strive for uncompromising positions on these big issues? It will also be interesting to note how far President Obama might go with compromise as well, since in the current American political scene, there doesn't seem to be a lot of political reward from the voters for working across the aisle
Dr. Chapman Rackaway - Fort Hays State University
Senate: Earlier this year it looked like Republicans had a very good chance of taking the Senate. Sharron Angle in Nevada and Christine O'Donnell have shortened those odds, however. It looks to me like the GOP will take at least six seats: In Colorado, North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If those are the only seats that change, Democrats will maintain a 52-48 seat margin over Republicans. But if Angle, Raese in West Virginia, Fiorina in California, Kirk in Illinois or Rossi in Washington can win, then we might have a 50-50 split. I think at least one of the five I just mentioned will win, so my prediction is 51D, 49 R for the closest Senate since 2001.
House: There are 23 seats currently held by Democrats that are near locks to turn over to Republicans. They're not concentrated in particular regions like they have been in previous upheaval elections where the South went Republican in 1994, and the Northeast went Democrat in 2006. The seats range from Florida to Washington and Indiana to Arizona. Enough open seats exist with quality Republican candidates running to suggest the House may change party control. Another 17 are relatively sure things. Only three Republican seats look to change. That 37 seat swing will be enough to change pa
